The UN has published a report that appears to confirm the Lancet’s figure of ~98,000 excess deaths caused by the Iraq war, based on a much larger sample size.

However, because people are statistical fuckwits who believe what they want to believe and lie to suit their own interests, this isn’t how the survey’s results have universally been reported. Many people have used the study’s figure of ~24,000 ‘war-related deaths’ to suggest the Lancet study is out by a factor of four.

This is bollocks. The question asked in the UN survey was "Has any person(s) who was a regular household member died or gone missing during the past 24 months?". The options were "Disease / Traffic Accident / War related death / Pregnancy or childbirth / Other". The ~24,000 figure is based exclusively on "war related death" responses.

The Lancet study, meanwhile, showed a comparable figure of ~33,000 for war-related violence. The ~98,000 figure *also* includes the increase in deaths from disease, RTAs and childbirth that followed the war. The UN study implicity confirms this, by indicating a substantial rise in infant and maternal mortality.

The indefatigable Tim Lambert has more.

"If I were to make a drink with hemlock in it and advertise that it "contains natural plant extracts", people would rush out and drink it like there was no tomorrow. Which, of course, there would be." – Squander Two sticks it to the ‘natural = good’ brigade

"[The Tories] need to use the words "left", "leftists", "Gramscians", "Trotskyites", "Marxists", "Fascists" in reference to the Za-Nu Labour Party constantly. Constantly. Constantly." – commenter Verity at Samizdata

Cassandras everywhere are denouncing the Hoodied Menace. But while the likes of the Daily Express are calling for an Outright Ban On These Evil Hoodies, the blogosphere is being a little more reflective.

Laban Tall is distressed that liberal commentators tend to take the piss out of those who believe that kids who wear silly clothes and act up pose The Greatest Threat To The Nation Of All Time, Ever.

The less-fearful Mark Holland has a related point: "The first problem one encounters when compaining about the behaviour of the youth of today is how to manage it without instantly being written off as, like, a square daddio."

Admittedly, there’s no logical inconsistency between the fact that square daddios have been complaining about the youth of today since 300BC, and the thesis that the youth of today are the most evil, degenerate scum ever to walk this earth.

However, as with religous cults who repeatedly make incorrect predictions that the end of the world is nigh (or political leaders who repeatedly lie for power and gain), each paranoid square daddio claim diminishes the power of the next – right up to the point where the most rational course of action is to ignore every pronouncement that the square daddios make.

…which leads onto the latest panic, "happy-slapping". Rather like my generation’s playground recreations of soft drinks ads, except that it’s recorded on video. Not terribly civilised behaviour – but again, if its emergence worries you significantly, you should probably examine yourself closely for signs of squareness. Daddio.

Excellent news: the CIA World Factbook has added the EU to its list of countries. This should annoy all the right people (also the main reason, beyond It Being Fucking Obviously The Right Idea, that I support UK accession to the Euro).

From Jim Bliss. Just read the whole thing.

"Those who voted Lib Dem because they like the idea of 16-year-olds being in porn films can expect to be among the first people to be let down by Kennedy." – the Monkey.

There’s a serious point attached to this: the Lib Dems are clearly aware that next time round, people and press will actually be focusing significantly on their policies (and outrageously slandering them, naturally). The post-election policy review, although not the most honest move ever made, is absolutely necessary for the party to continue gaining votes from the illiberal parties next time round.

Madeleine Bunting has written a moderately interesting article on how Western attitudes to suicide bombing differ from our attitudes to other forms of political violence. In response, Norman Geras has writen something amazingly silly.

His thesis is that Ms Bunting neglects the horror and carnage that some suicide bombers cause among civilian populations, and that she dwells too much on the fact that suicide bombers die. The article is summed up by his quote, "I would guess that for many the death of a suicide bomber doesn’t in fact make the atrocity, or the horror, of his or her act any worse than it otherwise would be."

This could be true. But Ms Bunting’s article is about why we perceive suicide bombers as different from other terrorist bombers – and the *only* difference here, obviously, is that they die.

Perhaps there really is no relevant difference between suicide bombing and other terrorist murdering. If so, then society is wrong to draw a distinction between the two acts, and Norm’s quibble really ought to be with The World At Large and perhaps The English Language, rather than with Ms Bunting.

Following a week of total isolation from news, politics, email and work, the only thoughts I’m immediately willing to share are strictly holiday related (incidentally, I had an excellent time. Thanks again to Larry for standing in…)

Never fly anywhere on the last Ryanair flight of the day. And if you’re considering flying to a destination with a single Ryanair flight per day that leaves later than 7PM, then reconsider.

If you’re planning on visiting Puglia in southeastern Italy, then bear in mind that there’s nothing to do other than drink wine and laze around. All the cities are industrial wastelands, and there are approximately two historical sites of note. If you rent a villa with a big garden and a pool, then you’ll be sorted. If you try and do almost anything else, you’ll be disappointed.

John should be back any moment, so I’ll end where I started with North Korea, which in a promising development will be resuming talks next week with South Korea. Maybe John banged some heads together while he was out there.

Anyway it’s been fun, thanks to John for entrusting me with the password to his beloved blog, which I’m prepared to sell on to the highest bidder. (Warning: shameless plug coming up) I’ll now have a bit more time to put into my own blog Tampon Teabag, so please have a look some time. I’m sure that David "what would a communist be doing in a website called www.stalinism.com?" Duff can think of some amusing names to call me if he ever pays a visit.

Now please welcome back the extremely pissed-off to be back at work Mr John Band…

Posted by Larry