The collected US opinion polls show that George Bush’s combination of vacuous grandstanding and outrageous libels has put him significantly ahead of John Kerry – either the Newsweek 52/41 or the Time 52/42 poll alone would look like an outlier, but both together seem to spell trouble.

However, the latest Economist/YouGov poll (PDF), with fieldwork conducted at the same time as Newsweek and Time, has the two leaders neck and neck on 45%. John Kerry is still one point ahead of George Bush when undecided voters are asked who they’re most likely to pick, and Mr Bush still has a 53% personal disapproval rating.

The Economist poll has been largely ignored by the American media, presumably on the grounds that upstart Limeys haven’t got anything to teach the home of opinion polling – but if it’s more accurate than the other two polls, then George Bush is the one with serious problems. Here’s hoping…