Option 1: Don’t pull out the troops.
The best case scenario here is that the coalition troops will protect the people of Iraq while local forces are built up. Arguably we owe them this. We will keep the insurgency under control until such a time as the Iraqi security forces have the training and resources to take on that job.
The worst case scenario is that the continuing presence of allied troops will actually make matters worse. By appearing to be a military occupation, it will stoke the fires of the insurgency. Those susceptible to the view that the Iraqi administration is a puppet of the US will have that view confirmed, and more attacks will follow. Coalition troops, as well as Iraqi recruits and civilians, will suffer heavy casualties.
Option 2: Pull out the troops.
The best case scenario is that with no allied troops on Arab soil, the ferocity of the insurgency will gradually die down, and normal life in Iraq can begin. Meanwhile, no more coalition soldiers will be killed.
The worst case scenario is that the embryonic Iraqi administration will be unable to cope unaided with the insurgency. It’s credibility will be damaged every time there’s a major attack, and confidence in it will be undermined, even to the point of collapse.
Posted by Larry