Election post

Final update – 0828GMT:

It’s gone about as badly as could be expected from the 0247 results: 2000 again, except for Kerry gaining New Hampshire and maybe, just maybe, Ohio. Which isn’t enough. The Senate news is worse, and presumably is the real explanation behind the high Republican spending outside swing presidency states…


On early swing state results, it’s going to be close. GWB ahead so far, but hopefully this proves little. Pretty sure he’ll win Florida though. Damn. Off to bed now, aiming to get up in a few hours.


TX, SD, ND, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming Bush. NY Kerry. World amazed. Why am I bothering? Everywhere obvious is going to declare now; everywhere swinging is going to be hazy til the morning…


NRO and Drudge say Florida leaning to Bush. Disclaimer: they’re both partisan hacks.


Pigs don’t fly. NJ, IL, MA, MD, ME for Kerry (3 out of 4). TN, OK, AL Bush. The NJ polls were as silly as they sounded. WV for Bush, which is a shame but not a surprise.


So far, GWB is way, way ahead of his 2000 total out of reporting precincts in GA, IN. Exactly in line with 2000 in KY. This isn’t a great sign for national unity.


Ohio Dems reportedly suing to keep polling booths open later. This is interesting – in Fla, anyone who’s in line at 1900EST gets to vote; not sure whether the same’s true for 1830EST in Ohio or not. WV called for GWB; again with the papal Catholicism.


Turnout up 9% in KY. Interesting, given that KY was never in contention. Suspect this might point towards a Republican popular vote win, given the relative campaign efforts outside swing states. Yahoo!’s popular vote counter is nonsense at the moment (based only on 13 reporting precincts, it’s calling Fla GWB 55/JFK 44), but will become relevant over the next hour. To mirror NRO, I’m drinking Tesco claret – the only drinkable cheap French wine I’ve bought in the UK since forever.


12 minutes left for the Ohioans. Drudge is calling OH as a tie and Kerry +2 in FLA. Although I’m not sure the data he’s using is much more recent than Slate’s. More boringly, GA, IN and KY go for Bush; VT goes for Kerry. Pope goes for Catholicism, etc. No numbers yet.


Slate reckons JFK 51/GWB 48 on afternoon polls. Florida and Ohio both 50/49. This would be enough of a margin. Real excitement begins now. Oh, and bollocks to the BBC for running a normal R4 schedule and instead making me download RealPlayer to listen to World Service News.


13 minutes till the real excitement kicks off. Meantime, Kevin Drum has a good post putting things in perspective: after a brutal, divisive, and polarizing campaign that’s now over a year old, we’re still able to hold a clean, peaceful election that’s attracted record turnout. Although I guess it’s slightly disturbing that he needs to make that point…


It’s looking good in the exit polls so far, but it could still all go horribly wrong.

Zogby’s last phone poll is particularly interesting – it predicts an EV majority for JFK with a popular vote majority for GWB. This fits with a conspiracy theory I’ve been flirting with since I discovered the Republicans are spending significant ad $$ in non-battleground states: they suspect they’re going to lose the EC, and would rather focus on denying Kerry popular legitimacy. Or maybe they just want to make sure they win Congress seats; feh.

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